The thirty-five chapters in this book describe various judgmental heuristics and the biases they produce, not only in laboratory experiments but in important social, medical, and political situations as well.
Individual chapters discuss the representativeness and availability heuristics, problems in judging covariation and control, overconfidence, multistage inference, social perception, medical diagnosis, risk perception, and methods for correcting and improving judgments under uncertainty.
About half of the chapters are edited versions of classic articles; the remaining chapters are newly written for this book. Most review multiple studies or entire subareas of research and application rather than describing single experimental studies.
This book will be useful to a wide range of students and researchers, as well as to decision-makers seeking to gain insight into their judgments and to improve them.
Judgment Under Uncertainty PDF
Judgment Under Uncertainty topped the list. And so it should have. If there’s anyone who needs to be aware of cognitive biases, it’s everyone. No one is immune, and I can’t imagine beginning to understand cognitive science without a basic, if only abstract, grasp of the ways in which, under circumstances of partial ignorance, perception itself can be the source of systematic errors.
(Psychologists, statisticians, and decision theorists will recognize “circumstances of partial ignorance” as “essentially all circumstances.”) So reading this book felt, in a way, like coming full circle. Kahneman and his collaborators have made their statement, have written their Critique; as for me, I’ve been shown yet another road to becoming a consistent scientist – which is to say, a rationalist and humanist as well.
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